New study reveals groundwater contamination risk in Pakistan : Arscenic seems to threaten the health of one third Pakistanis, mostly living in Punjab.

Approximately 50 million to 60 million people use groundwater within the area at risk, with hot spots around Lahore and Hyderabad. Will this motivate Pakistani authorities to test wells in high-risk areas and warn communities?

Abstract

Arsenic-contaminated aquifers are currently estimated to affect ~150 million people around the world. However, the full extent of the problem remains elusive. This is also the case in Pakistan, where previous studies focused on isolated areas. Using a new data set of nearly 1200 groundwater quality samples throughout Pakistan, we have created state-of-the-art hazard and risk maps of arsenic-contaminated groundwater for thresholds of 10 and 50 μg/liter. Logistic regression analysis was used with 1000 iterations, where surface slope, geology, and soil parameters were major predictor variables. The hazard model indicates that much of the Indus Plain is likely to have elevated arsenic concentrations, although the rest of the country is mostly safe. Unlike other arsenic-contaminated areas of Asia, the arsenic release process in the arid Indus Plain appears to be dominated by elevated-pH dissolution, resulting from alkaline topsoil and extensive irrigation of unconfined aquifers, although pockets of reductive dissolution are also present. We estimate that approximately 50 million to 60 million people use groundwater within the area at risk, with hot spots around Lahore and Hyderabad. This number is alarmingly high and demonstrates the urgent need for verification and testing of all drinking water wells in the Indus Plain, followed by appropriate mitigation measures.

Maps like this have a big impact: The first reliable risk map for arsenic in groundwater.

Read full open access article at 

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/8/e1700935.full
http://advances.sciencemag.org/…/3.8.e170093…/1700935_SM.pdf

fig. S1. Maps of spatial distribution and values of all chemical parameters.
fig. S2. Grids of all measured chemical parameters.
fig. S3. Hazard maps of logistic regression models using thresholds of 10 and 50 μg/liter.
fig. S4. Maps of other well-fitting logistic regression models.

Lahore Charge Circle Boundary Map 2017 of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

Lahore Charge Circle Map 2017

Generated from map data from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; available at http://www.pbscensus.gov.pk/sites/default/files/gis_maps/lahore/lahore_district.pdf

National Assembly Constituency Map of Pakistan

National Assembly Constituency Map of Pakistan with its estimated population in year 2010

Gujranwala - A century of urban expansion

Map showing expansion of built up area from 1914 to 2009
Source: http://pcgip.urbanunit.gov.pk/docs/DLIs/DLI5/GujranwalaPeriUrbanNotice.pdf

Commuting via public transport: What Pakistanis should know

Day to day transportation in a number of Pakistani cities is about to revolutionized with the introduction of pubic transport systems. Bus rapid transport is already operating in four cities; Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Multan. The commuters, who rued the experiences of private vans and buses, have started to find some peace of mind and physique with the introduction of a better-organized transport system in their city. Four more projects in the cities of Karachi, Peshawar, Faisalabad and Quetta are under making. After decades of planning and contestation, a metro train system in Lahore is also under construction. These improvements in urban transport have been undertaken after a series of economic, social and environmental issues caused by the poor transportation in our major urban centers such as Lahore and Karachi.  

Travelling in an organized mass transport system is somehow a new experience for most of the current generation of Pakistani travellers. Experiences from across the world show that commuting in public transport system can be a pleasant and lively experience, provided that the quality of service is kept at an acceptable level of efficiency and consistency. There is a little local information or public awareness about how to better use and enjoy the public transportation based commuting and non-work journeys.

It is best to keep in mind that the urban areas have received this mass transport system due to a great demand and ridership availability which in times may turn to be in huge numbers

As our mega cities are utilizing public transport day by day and most of our workforce is still reliant on public transport t for their commute, I mention some useful points form my commuting experiences form London and Hong kong which can be useful for Pakistani travelers.

Use public transport

It saves you form driving fatigue, congestion charging and parking costs, in central London. It may be more time saving as well, even as compared to local buses due to heavy vehicle and pedestrian traffic on the roads. 

Walk, Walk, Walk

Do not hesitate in doing some physical activity, in terms of walking, during commute. It is good to spend some time walking during your commute time; it may include walking to and within transport stations; be sufficiently brisk during walk and adequately caring for others.

Follow pedestrian traffic signals for road crossings

Roads become busy in the office or school timings. Drivers strictly follow traffic signals and do not expect some jaywalker crossing in front of them. Almost all the traffic signals have a signal for walkers as well. Green man means people can cross the road. And it is quick.

Expect crowd.

Megacities cities like London and Hong Kong have a lot of jobs and so their business district areas are crowded with workers and visitors. Do not be surprise wary of the number of people walking around in formal and casual wears. Be courteous (do not stare at them).

Be quick. It saves time for you and for others.

Whether it is walking along the street, road crossing or even having breakfast at a roadside café, time is money in London. And people are usually less wasteful for it. So be quick in navigating through the crowdy streets or enjoying snack during commute.

Electric mobility cannot replace physical mobility

Use Escalators but do not ignore using stairs as well. Particularly if you are going downward. Sometimes people may walk down or upwards on escalators. But it requires little practice.

Use transport facilities with care and decency

Disturbing others physically or even by staring, is not compromised. While both men and women use train without any distinction, it becomes essential that the travelers respect each other’s space and avoid eye contact or physical contact with others. Eating or drinking in transport is not allowed. Not even smoking. It helps keeping the facilities clean and healthy for use. Waster throwing is not a practice as well.

Standing in public transport is OK.

While in train, do not hesitate to stand as seats may be fully occupied during rush hours and you may have to stand up for your entire journey. Be gracious to offer seats for those deserving. London transport issues badges for needy population, such as “Please offer me a seat”.

Listen to the announcements

Trains may be delayed; routes or stations may have particular announcements. Keep an ear for these announcements, which can be useful to avoid long delays. It is particular important during the journey, as you may have accidently boarded a train which is not going towards your destination. Train may also not be serving a particular stations or may terminate earlier than previously shown. People often see official twitter updates from transport authority to ensure efficient journey.

Use your idle time for reading or listening to your favorite stuff

Your one day commute may take anywhere between fifteen minute to an hour or more. It becomes easier and enjoyable if you use this time to read what interests you more. London stations offer a lot of free reading material in daily newspapers and magazines; ranging from day to day politics to fashion and culture. I prefer reading my own material rather than freely available print media on stations E.g. a personal book on popular science or history.  In last year, I have completed two books in my commuting time: Travels of Ibn-e-batuta and HG Wells, A brief history of the world. It is hard to give time to reading in office or at home. Commuting time gives a wonderful opportunity to read something.

Acclimatize yourself

Finally, a local scenario, which is not so common with most of the developed world: Our climate is often dry hot for most of the year. It is somehow similar to what we get in Hong Kong, although it can be more hot and humid than hot and dry. It is always beneficial to use and keep in your daily luggage, an appropriate pair of sunglasses or even a foldable-umbrella.

Comparing urban footprint of Lahore and Karachi

Comparing urban footprint of Lahore and Karachi

The smaller catching up with the bigger

Newspaper: Pakistan Today

Publishing date: Sunday 19 February 2017 

Web link: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/02/19/comparing-urban-footprint-of-lahore-and-karachi/

Pakistan is the most urbanised country in South Asia. While the official figures rather undercount the level of urbanisation in the country, the current share of urban population is estimated around 40 percent of the total population. It is not only our cities and town that are expanding continuously and rapidly, our rural settlements are also growing in size. Most of the discussion on Pakistan’s urbanisation is based on population size. The actual geographical area of the cities is almost always ignored in this debate on urban growth. The spatial characteristics of cities are little discussed because of the general lack of appropriate data — and enthusiasm of analysts — to do so. Being an urban researcher and spatial analyst, I am quite curious to learn about the way our cities spread on ground and how they compare with each other.

Three months ago, in October 2016, a team of researchers from the New York University, Lincoln Institute of land Policy and UN Habitat presented a global analysis of the urban expansion in cities at the Habitat III Conference in Quito, Ecuador. Their work, Atlas of Urban Expansion, measures the historical growth of built up area in a global sample of 200 cities. The atlas covered three Pakistani cities Karachi, Lahore and Sialkot. The study found that in a space of 22 years, from 1991 to 2013, total built up area of Karachi grew from 18,057 hectares to 45,327 hectares, i.e. by a factor of 2.5. For the same period, size of built up area in Lahore increased from 11,518 hectares to 35,018 hectares i.e. by a factor of 3. Similarly, Sialkot expanded from a mere 2,038 hectares to 9,620 hectares, by a factor of 4.7. What is more impressive here is that, in a span of twenty-two years, Lahore and Karachi added a combined urban area of around 50 thousand hectares to their size. In other words, an area roughly five times larger than present day Sialkot city was added in Lahore and Karachi in the last two decades.

Atlas of Urban Expansion defined the extents of cities by the limit of its built up land – an approach originated and practiced in ancient Rome. This approach may be appropriate for cities that sprawl outside their administrative boundaries, but it does not suit our large city districts where most of the land is still undeveloped and a number of small suburban settlements exist away from the main city. In short, the results of the Atlas of Urban Expansion ignore a considerable size of built up land being used for urban development at the city district level. Also, for current year 2017, the numbers should be slightly higher because more urban area has been added since 2013.

To get more complete and recent figures, I decided to map the urban footprint with the latest data from NASA’s freely available Landsat satellite. I covered entire district areas for this analysis so that the results may be comparable at the administrative level. Results from this exercise are quite revealing and thought provoking. Lahore city district has an urban footprint of approximately 63,800 hectares. As the official total area of the city district is 173,700 hectares, it means that around 36 percent of its land is occupied by some kind of urban development such as buildings, roads, urban parks, etc. On the other hand, city district Karachi has an urban footprint of approximately 74,000 hectares. With a total city district area of 365,000 hectares, urban development in Karachi city district covers around 18pc of its total land.

Figure 1 Urban footprint in the city districts of Lahore and Karachi, in year 2017

Horizontal expansion demands more infrastructural resource and thus becomes less efficient when resources are scarce and contested. Without any visible signs of actions taken to stop this low-density sprawl, it seems that more productive land will fall prey to the residential development.

Two conclusions can be drawn immediately from these figures: First, that at city district level, Lahore is more urbanised than Karachi in terms of percentage area being used for urban development. Secondly, it shows that Lahore is not far behind Karachi in terms of total area of urban development as well. Difference between both districts is only around 10,000 hectares and who knows how long it will take Lahore to cover this gap? Keeping in view the scale of recent infrastructural and industrial commitments, it seems realistic to say that in a decade or two, Lahore’s urban development area might surpass that of Karachi, potentially making it the district with largest urban area in Pakistan. A review of the old data would shed more light on the rate at which urban development occurred in both city districts.

Provincial government statistics referred to above show that city district Karachi has an estimated current population of around 9.5 million whereas city district Lahore has a population of 6.5 million. If we calculate population density in the areas of urban development only, we find that Karachi houses approximately 135 people’s per hectare of built land, while for Lahore these figures reach merely 102 persons per hectare. These statistics show that that land consumption might be more efficient in Karachi than Lahore.

These urban patterns and differences are not without underlying causes and consequences. A significantly lower (by one third to be precise) built up population density in Lahore is an aftermath of choices its city managers and developers have made for the city over decades. Lahore’s urban development is often criticised for favouring low-density sprawl and not allowing high-rise development.

On its causes, it can be said that Lahore has benefited from stable geopolitical and economic circumstances. It has enjoyed greater political stability and a better urban governance over the last few decades. It was also successful in reaping the benefits of classical urban giantism theory that explains how large cities prosper by getting bulk of the public resources. Lahore has enjoyed a strong presence of urban-villages in its economic and geographical hinterlands. These villages have also grown in size along with the city, resulting in the agglomeration and conurbation of settlements in the city district.

On the other hand, Karachi scored negative on the same points on which Lahore prospered over the years. A volatile political climate, poor urban governance and sever security environment meant that the benefits of urbanisation were not fully realised in Karachi.

This ongoing process of continuous outward expansion provides an opportunity and a threat for both cities. There is good news in the sense that being the second largest city in the country, Lahore, can now easily boasts its status as being the most urbanised city district in the country. On the negative side, Lahore should be worried about its low-density sprawl, which is engulfing its vast agricultural lands. Horizontal expansion demands more infrastructural resource and thus becomes less efficient when resources are scarce and contested. Without any visible signs of actions taken to stop this low-density sprawl, it seems that more productive land will fall prey to the residential development. Gentrification and exclusion of local residents from the area when new gated communities suddenly emerge and stop the ‘outsiders’ from mixing or enjoying their neighbourhood, should also concern our social scientists and government departments. Good news for both cities is that a vast portion of their area is still undeveloped. They can learn from each other’s past and improve their future course of actions to materialise the dreams of a more sustainable, loveable and prosperous society.

Muhammad Adeel

The writer holds a PhD degree in urban planning and currently works as Research Officer in LSE Cities, at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Urban Atlas - What for?

Pakistan is rapidly urbanizing but a reliable and accurate source of information about its urban areas and patterns of urban expansion is missing. To overcome this issue, I have started a long term self-initiated and self-funded project of mapping and measuring Pakistani urban areas using collection and analysis of freely available remote sensing and GIS datasets.

I plan to build an extensive database of image maps and urban analysis of Pakistani cities on this website.

The need of this work arose out of my decade long experience as a professional urban planner working in Pakistan and abroad on the issues of urban planning in and around Pakistan.

The work carried out by LSE Cities, the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and Pakistani architect Arif Hasan has been an inspiration for me to initiate this effort.

Check out their inspirational work here:

https://urbangovernance.net/en/

http://atlasofurbanexpansion.org/

http://arifhasan.org/

Do share your opinions on this work and how it can be improved and made useful. If you would like to use this material, please get in touch. I can be contacted at m.adeel@lse.ac.uk and townplanneradeel@gmail.com

Best regards

Muhammad Adeel, PhD

LSE Cities, LSE, London, UK